Egyiptom - Inflációs ütem

Egypt's annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 3.6 percent in November 2019 from a 14-year low of 3.1 percent in October, after falling for five consecutive months. Prices advanced at the same pace for regulated items (12.5 percent) while fell at a slower pace for fruits & vegetables (-11.9 percent vs -13.4 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent, after increasing 1 percent in the previous month. The central bank has already cut interest rates four times this year aiming to support growth as the country emerges from a three-year IMF-backed economic reform programme that during 2017 saw inflation spike to as high as 33 percent.

The annual inflation rate in Egypt dropped to 3.1 percent in October 2019 from 4.8 percent in the prior month. It was the lowest inflation rate since December 2005, amid a decline in food prices, in particular fruits & vegetables (-13.4 percent vs -0.9 percent in September), but also the statistical effect of a high base last year. The fall in annual inflation rate is one of the central bank's biggest accomplishments since the country embarked an IMF-backed economic program in 2016. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1 percent in October, after being unchanged in September. The annual core inflation ticked up to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in the previous month. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 1.1 percent.

The annual inflation rate in Egypt fell to 4.8 percent in September 2019, the lowest since December 2013, from 7.5 percent in the prior month, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in food prices (0.3 percent vs 6.9 percent in August), led by fruits & vegetables (-0.9 percent vs 15.5 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged, after increasing 0.7 percent in the previous month.

The annual inflation rate in Egypt fell to 7.5 percent in August 2019, the lowest since January 2013, from 8.7 percent in the prior month. The slowdown in headline inflation followed a fresh round of fuel subsidy cuts in July 2019 as part of the terms of the IMF agreement that pushed domestic fuel prices up by 16% to 30%, and the increase was expected to push up prices for transport, food products and other goods. In August, prices slowed significantly for food & non-alcoholic beverages (6.9 percent vs 9.0 percent in July) and housing & utilities (8.2 percent vs 9.8 percent) while advanced faster for transport (8.9 percent vs 8.7 percent). On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.7 percent, compared to a 1.8 percent rise in the previous month.

The annual inflation rate in Egypt dropped to 8.7 percent in July 2019, the lowest since August 2015, from 9.4 percent in the prior month. The deceleration in consumer prices was most likely due to a slower rate of increase in prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (9.0 percent vs 10.4 percent in June), as well as a high base effect. Meanwhile, cost rose further for housing & utilities (9.8 percent vs 7.5 percent) and transport (8.7 percent vs 2.1 percent). Earlier this month, Egypt introduced its latest round of fuel subsidy cuts, raising prices by 16-30%, as it nears the end of the IMF program. Also, the Egyptian government raised prices on cooking gas and oil, electricity and some food items. On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched up 1.8 percent, after decreasing 0.8 percent in the previous month.

The annual inflation rate in Egypt fell to 9.4 percent in June 2019, the lowest since March 2016, from 14.1 percent in the prior month. The deceleration was partly due to last year's high base effect, but also driven by prices of fruits & vegetables (24.2 percent vs 39 percent in May) and regulated items (9.6 percent vs 19.9 percent). Meanwhile, the annual core inflation which excludes volatile items, declined to 6.4 percent from 7.8 percent in the prior month, the lowest since October 2015. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went down 0.8 percent, reversing from a 1.1 percent rise in the previous month, the first monthly decline in consumer prices since December last year..